We remember the great events of history, but we seldom remember the path it took to get to them. The convoluted sequence of events and decisions that have led to memorable, sometimes cataclysmic, outcomes are muddied by the effects of… Read More »Butterflies Flapping Their Wings
To be or not to be? That is the question:Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to sufferThe slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,And by opposing end them? One can imagine Hamlet’s words… Read More »To Taper or Not to Taper?
For the last twelve years, borrowers and financial markets have enjoyed the benefits of record low interest rates. Moreover, official measures of inflation have remained tame, confounding economists who assumed the explosive growth of money supply created by the U.S.… Read More »Hubris
A strong stock market is often equated with economic vitality. It has been an article of faith that as the economy does better, so will stocks. Indeed, Donald Trump often pointed to rising stock prices as proof that his administration’s… Read More »The Fragile Bull
One year ago people across the globe wished for nothing more than to return to normal. The pandemic had thrown virtually every institution out of equilibrium, and we have been trying to regain the balance we enjoyed in 2019. But… Read More »Seeking Balance
The one economic factor that western countries have been able to comfortably ignore for years is inflation. Since the early 1990s, when globalization began to spread, secular downward pressure has been imposed on prices of goods, commodities, and wages. Low… Read More »The Fed’s Nemesis Returns
Wall Street has become captivated by the prospects for easy money. News articles are filled with stories of individual stocks jumping by astronomical amounts in a single day, by wild first-day gains in initial public offerings, and by newbie bloggers… Read More »Siren’s Song
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” — Charles Mackay, 1852 We seem to be living in a… Read More »The Madness of Crowds
One of the greatest positives to come out of 2020 is the impressive development of covid vaccines. From virtually a standing start, drug companies and national health departments have worked around the clock to successfully create inoculations against a pandemic… Read More »Bubble Watch 2021
Investors got a double dose of good news to start November. First, the lengthy and acrimonious presidential election was finally decided. Second, the long awaited covid vaccines began to appear on the horizon. The vaccines are truly something to be… Read More »Addicted to the Cure